The Rip Report · RipIndex

The Rip Report

Week of August 10, 2026
How this is measured ↗

Pulls are read from each site's public feed or the chain, valued at each site's own price. Cash-back is realized — what real opens actually paid at each site's own buyback, over the trailing 7 days — never theoretical EV. Never referral-ranked. Wallets shown are public on-chain data, truncated. Read the full methodology.

Almost every pack on every site we track is −EV over the long run — and when our data says one isn't, we show that too. What changes week to week is where the money actually went, who got cooked, and who hit. Here's the tape.

-4.3% Across every site we measure, players got back 4.3% less than they paid — the house edge, in one number.
363,663 pulls read across Collector Crypt, Phygitals, Courtyard, GachaPull, Monster · trailing 7 days
MECHANICS

One site doesn't recycle what you pull. We checked whether that helps you.

Beezie's machines genuinely drain and restock. What that does to your odds is stranger than we expected.

Most gacha machines put what you pull straight back in. Sell a card back on Phygitals and it's available to the next opener within about twenty seconds — the pool barely moves. Beezie doesn't do that. Their team told us they hold swapped items aside and let a machine run down until the good cards are gone, then restock it.

That's an unusual claim, so we checked it against 25,488 machine snapshots we'd already recorded. It's true, and you can see it in the stock counts: one machine drained from 813 cards to 145, jumped back to 797, drained to 435, jumped to 807. Another fell to 32 before a restock took it back over 2,000. A third restocked 17 times in 475 hours. That's a real sawtooth, not marketing.

Which raises the obvious question: if grails leave the pool and don't come back, is a freshly restocked machine worth more than a drained one? Here is our honest answer. Comparing fresh against drained within each cycle, the gap is −2.78 percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval from −10.22 to +2.59. That interval comfortably contains zero, so we cannot show you a timing edge — but it is also wide, and it rests on just 16 drain cycles. Too few to rule one out either. Anyone quoting a tighter number on this is counting five-minute polls as if they were independent observations. They aren't; a machine barely moves over hours.

The direction is the interesting part, because it isn't the one the story predicts. Three of four machines lean the other way — the drained machine reads slightly richer. There's a mechanical reason: Beezie's published grail odds are simply how many grails remain divided by how many cards remain, and draining shrinks that denominator faster than pulls remove the rare cards. One machine sat at 24 cards with 3 grails still in it — a 12.5% grail rate that no fresh machine ever offers.

Before anyone builds a strategy on that: don't. Deep drain happened in 18 of 103 cycles, usually briefly, and usually ended by a restock rather than by you getting there first. The median deeply-drained machine sat at 1.034 against 1.048 fresh. Out of 25,488 snapshots, exactly 3 showed a machine priced better than 1.20. It is a real quirk of the arithmetic, not an opportunity.

One more thing, because we'd rather say it than have you find it. While checking this, we discovered our own Beezie return figures were too generous. On a buyback the machine's treasury pays out a gross amount and the player receives 94% of it after the swap fee — and we had been counting the gross. Corrected, the site-wide recovery we show for Beezie drops from 103.8% to 97.8%, and every machine reads negative again. The old number wasn't Beezie being generous. It was us measuring the wrong side of the fee.

Biggest hits of the week

$250,000 50× the pack
2011 #SL7 Lugia-Holo PSA 10 Call
Collector Crypt
$117,000 23.4× the pack
2003 #146 Charizard-Holo PSA 10
Collector Crypt
$102,000 20.4× the pack
2002 #3 Charizard-Holo PSA 10 Le
Collector Crypt
$82,500 16.5× the pack
1999 #2 Blastoise-Holo 1st Editi
Collector Crypt
$75,000 15× the pack
2019 #397 Full Art/Lillie PSA 10
Collector Crypt
$58,247 11.6× the pack
1999 Pokemon Base Set 1st Edition Holo Charizard #4 PSA 9
Phygitals
$54,500 21.8× the pack
2002 #107 Shining Charizard 1st
Collector Crypt
$54,000 21.6× the pack
1996 #6 Charizard-Prism PSA 10 J
Collector Crypt

Best & worst packs

Least-bad this week

Soccer $100 PackCollector Crypt · $100 · n=860
+5.1%realized
Soccer $250 PackCollector Crypt · $250 · n=890
+2.9%realized
UltraMonster · $1,250 · n=1,791
-2.4%realized
MonsterMonster · $250 · n=3,756
-3.1%realized
One Piece Ocean Blue PackCollector Crypt · $50 · n=22,548
-3.4%realized

Roughest this week

One Piece Ultra PackCourtyard · $250 · n=248
-18.9%realized
Pokémon Platinum PackCourtyard · $500 · n=438
-18.0%realized
The Amazing Chase EncoreCourtyard · $89 · n=9,459
-17.6%realized
Sealed Pokémon BoosterCourtyard · $25 · n=61,532
-17.2%realized
Pokémon Cursed Cards PackGachaPull · $67 · n=224
-17.0%realized

Smallest buy, biggest multiple

Best value-to-cost hits of the week
2025 Pokemon Mep En-Me Black Star Promo Psyduck Meg Three Pack Blister #007 PSA 10 Monster
450× $450 on $1
1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless Holo Charizard #4 PSA 9 MINT Phygitals
399.5× $9,986 on $25
Storm Emeralda Box GachaPull
123.3× $185 on $2
2000 Pokemon Neo Genesis 1st Edition Holo Lugia #9 PSA 8 Phygitals
101× $5,051 on $50
2001 Pokemon Black Star Promos Ny Pokemon Center Opening Lucky Stadium #41 PSA 10 Phygitals
99.5× $4,975 on $50

Who ripped the most

Highest-volume wallets this week · public on-chain data, truncated
7nB5…nPKW Collector Crypt
7,401 pulls $478,250 spent
3mWp…6wMj Collector Crypt
6,759 pulls $1,784,250 spent
6wmA…C7vv Collector Crypt
5,240 pulls $308,950 spent
FfvH…RS25 Collector Crypt
2,907 pulls $151,400 spent
AT1i…47ea Collector Crypt
2,848 pulls $413,275 spent

Price & odds movers

Changes we caught across the packs we watch
One Piece Diamond Pack Courtyard
price $800 → $1,000
Pokémon Mythic Pack Courtyard
price $4,500 → $5,000
Pokémon Legend Pack Courtyard
price $2,000 → $2,500
One Piece Diamond Pack Courtyard
price $1,000 → $800
Pokémon Legend Pack Courtyard
price $2,500 → $2,000
Pokémon Mythic Pack Courtyard
price $5,000 → $4,500
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Share on X This is gambling. Almost every pack we track is −EV. This is the receipt, not advice.

Past issues

Every prior week, frozen as published