Courtyard: published odds, audited on-chain
Polygon · graded-card vending machines · publishes odds (we verify them) · data refreshed 2026-07-05 16:26 UTC · by RipIndex, independent — methodology
Courtyard (courtyard.io) is a Polygon-based marketplace whose vending machines rip random graded cards — Pokémon, One Piece and more — with an instant-buyback option. It's one of the biggest platforms in the category, and notably one of the few that publishes its odds, EV and buyback ratio directly.
Published isn't the same as verified — so RipIndex runs an on-chain audit: we read Courtyard's actual pack-opens off Polygon and compare what people really pulled against what the published odds imply. The current audit lives in the Odds Report; the economics live below.
Live: pack economics (published, then checked)
| Pack | Price | Published EV | Buyback | Cash-out EV (% of cost) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sealed Pokémon Booster | $15 | $14.55 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Starter Pack | $25 | $24.25 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Sealed Pokémon Booster | $25 | $24.25 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Pro Pack | $50 | $48.5 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Sealed Pokémon Booster | $50 | $48.5 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Master Pack | $100 | $97 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Ultra (Spicy) | $249 | $242 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Ultra Pack | $250 | $243 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Platinum (Spicy) | $499 | $484 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Platinum Pack | $500 | $485 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Diamond Pack | $1,000 | $970 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Legend Pack | $2,500 | $2,425 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| Pokémon Mythic Pack | $5,000 | $4,850 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
| One Piece Pro Pack | $50 | $48.5 | 84.6% | 82.1% |
The column that decides whether you come out ahead is the last one: published EV × buyback ratio, as a share of what you paid. It sits below 100% on every pack — around 82% on most — which is the honest way to read “EV close to pack price” marketing anywhere.
What real pulls have returned (48h window)
Pokémon packs: 8,043 recorded pulls — median card $40.5, mean $105, biggest $17,996. One Piece: 1,158 pulls — median $65.1, biggest $2,475. Means sit far above medians because rare big hits drag the average — the exact shape a gacha is designed to have.
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Frequently asked
Is Courtyard legit?
Yes, by the checks that matter: real graded cards, published odds, on-chain settlement, working buybacks — and unusually, its published numbers have an independent check here, since RipIndex audits pack-opens read directly from Polygon. That still doesn't make it profitable: instant cash-out EV runs around 82% of pack price.
Does Courtyard publish real odds?
It publishes odds, EV and buyback per pack — rare for the category. Our ongoing on-chain audit compares those published odds with what buyers actually pulled; current results are in the RipIndex Odds Report.
What does a Courtyard pack actually return?
The published EV sits near pack price, but cashing out immediately applies the buyback ratio (~84.6%), which lands cash-out EV around 82% of what you paid. Keeping cards changes the math only if you value them above buyback.
Courtyard vs Collector Crypt — which is better?
They're the two giants of the category and structurally similar (−EV either way). The data comparison is here: rip-index.com/compare/collector-crypt-vs-courtyard.