Courtyard vs GachaPull

published-and-audited vs published-and-watched · data refreshed 2026-07-11 00:17 UTC · by RipIndex, independent — methodology

Both publish their odds — the good half of the category. The difference is what stands behind the number. Courtyard's published odds have an independent on-chain audit behind them: RipIndex reads its pack-opens directly off Polygon, and the numbers keep holding. GachaPull's odds come with an open API and a live feed we record — and there the interesting number is the distance between published theory and realized returns, which on some packs has been wide.

Head to head

The honest verdict

On numbers you can lean on: Courtyard. Uniform economics (published EV near price, ~84.6% buyback, cash-out around 82% of cost) and an audit that keeps confirming them — you always know the deal. GachaPull is the scattered one: a huge catalog from fifty cents to four figures, honest about its theory, but with realized 7-day returns that have undershot that theory on a number of packs — small samples and heavy tails at micro stakes cut both ways, and the direction so far has mostly been down. On profitability: neither, as always. Courtyard tells you the price of playing up front; GachaPull's price has sometimes been steeper than its own label.

Courtyard's audit is in the Odds Report; both sites' live per-pack numbers are on the board.

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Frequently asked

Do Courtyard and GachaPull both publish real odds?

Both publish per-pack odds. Courtyard's have repeatedly survived RipIndex's independent audit against pack-opens read off Polygon. GachaPull's are published in good faith with an open API — and our recorded pulls check realized returns against them continuously, which is where gaps show up.

Which is safer for a small budget?

GachaPull's fifty-cent packs risk less per rip; Courtyard's $25 packs cost more but behave more predictably (uniform, audited economics). Neither is +EV — a smaller stake just slows the loss rate, it doesn't flip it.

What does "published vs realized" mean here?

Published is the site's own math for what a pack should return; realized is what recorded pulls actually returned. Courtyard's two numbers agree under audit. On GachaPull, several packs' realized returns have landed below the published theory over our recording windows.